Presidential Prefs, end of August 2007
What's actually good for the country is not Democrats winning, it's about the right policies being put into place and the right kind of democracy being created.
So, here's my take on the upcoming election, ordered by how desirable I find each outcome (best first). The number that follows each is the likelihood I see of it coming to pass.
1. Edwards or Gore win primary and go on to win general election, inaugurating a new progressive era of real policy change that starts NOW! - 20% likely
2. Hillary Clinton wins primary and loses general election, removing biggest obstacle (the DLC, Clinton legacy) to the reinvention of Democratic party as a real party of the people. Change starts now, but accelerates in 2012. - 35% likely
3. Obama wins primary and goes on to win general election as a unifier above all else, lacks courage to really make any changes to anything while president. Change postponed 4-8 years. - 10% likely
4. Edwards or Gore win primary and lose general election, creating doubt about the viability of people powered candidates. Change set back 6-10 years. - 5% likely
5. Hillary Clinton wins primary and wins general election, spends years hammering the Democratic party back into the corporate mold while fighting the battles of the 90s over again with reinvigorated GOP. Change stalls for 12-16 years - 30% likely